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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."