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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.