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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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